Large-scaled demagoguery practiced by the PS in order to get elected has only little effect. In Hauts-de-Seine-9, Claude Guéant, the former interior minister known for his very right-wing views, faced a local UMP dissident candidacy from Thierry Solère. Kucheida, caught with the hand in the jelly pot, won 21.6% against 25.7% for the FN and 24.6% for the PS candidate. On top of that, the media seems to have decided to only talk about the FN targets and the Royal-Falorni civil war in La Rochelle. This article provides forecasts based on an estimated vote function from local data (départements) between 1986 and 2007. French voters return to the polls on June 18 to elect their MPs. And Lassalle, with a fairly regionalist style, can also perform well with the 6.8% who supported the Basque regionalist candidate. He took 40.8% by the first round, and enters a triangulaire against the FN (23.9%) and the UMP (23.2%) as the overwhelming favourite. In Yvelines-3, Henri Guaino, Sarkozy’s former speechwriter and aide, placed a narrow first with only 28.1% against 25.8% for the PS and 23% for Olivier Delaporte, a right-wing dissident. Since your predictions seem pretty encouraging, I can only hope you are right. She can certainly count on the backing of the 7.6% of voters who backed Frédéric Dutoit, a former PCF deputy running for the FG. Posted on June 12, 2012, in France. Kader Arif, in Haute-Garonne-10, won the primary against two PS dissidents and should win handily in the runoff. The FG narrowly managed to save two open seats, in Cher-2 (28.9 vs 27 for the PS) and Bouches-du-Rhône-13 (27 vs 24.8 for the PS and 21.7 for the FN). Why do all the maps of the first round I’ve seen (especially tv5.org’s) show 3-4 non-UMP deputies elected at the first round, but all the result lists say there were only 2? She will face the PS candidate Philippe Kemel, who won a distant second place with 23.5%. While it is a significant improvement on 2007 (which seems to be the FN’s main spin on its result, which is a ridiculously dishonest spin) and even 2002, it falls below the FN’s record 15% in the 1997 legislative elections. The FG stands a chance at gaining a seat only in Oise-6, where it won 23.1% against 28.5% for the UMP and 22.2% for the FN, which is qualified for the runoff. She won 34.3% in the first round, against 39.3% for the PS candidate. Xavier Bertrand, a former UMP cabinet minister and potential leadership contender, is the favourite for reelection in Aisne-2, not an easy constituency for the right by any means. Solférino called on their candidate to drop out, to prevent the victory of the FN, but the local candidate has apparently preferred to play the game until the end and will maintain her candidacy, having already said in the past that she saw no major differences between Maréchal-Le Pen and the UMP incumbent. Learn how your comment data is processed. The second consequence of these elections is a collapse of the populist and extreme right. I have not yet done my own crunching of numbers seat by seat (given how my predictions were terrible, I doubt anybody will take my predictions seriously! Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the 22-year old granddaughter of the old patriarch, won 34.6% and first place in Vaucluse-3, an excellent result for the young candidate. I covered the stakes, the parties and the major races in a preview post here. The PS won 32.9%, while Collard utterly crushed the UMP incumbent who managed a paltry 23.9%. In the second round, the candidate winning a plurality of the votes is elected. This article provides forecasts based on an estimated vote function from local data (départements) between 1986 and 2007. Traditionally, runoffs usually oppose the top two contenders. In Meurthe-et-Moselle-5, the loudmouthed UMP incumbent Nadine Morano, a particularly distasteful Sarkozyst populist, is in a tough spot. FG 6.91% (+2.62%) winning 0 seats The centre, as always, finds itself dispersed. This page was last edited on 10 September 2019, at 01:43 (UTC). I have not yet compiled my predictions, by party, for the second round(s), but once again, the first round results are favourable to the left and everything seems to indicate that the left as a whole will easily win an absolute majority and there is a good chance that the PS and its closest allies will win more than 289 seats, the absolute majority threshold. However, now when the campaign is over and tongues are loosened, a growing part of the UMP leaders renounces the extreme right direction, which was initiated by Sarkozy’s adviser Patrick Buisson. She took 44.8% by the first round, against only 23.6% for the UMP candidate. With a legislative election which will have proven a rout for the FG, the PCF will show signs of wariness with Mélenchon’s bold strategy of quasi-complete independence from the PS, and be even more tempted than before to rush like schoolchildren to the big master, the PS, and beg for a little bit of soup from the Leviathan of the French left. The FG found itself swept up in a PS dynamic in the first round, whereby left-wing voters, by and large, decided to confirm their May 6 vote by helping Hollande and the PS win an absolute majority on their own. Even though Bertrand, a moderate, was placed on Marine’s blacklist, I still think Bertrand should save his seat by a narrow margin. 2. Le Foll won a very strong 46% in the first round, against only 31.7% for Fillon’s former suppléant, the UMP candidate. TV5.org and other websites using the AFP’s interactive map all give 4 ‘DVD’ or NC elected though the official statistics from the Ministry gives us only 2 ‘DVD’ or NC elected. In 2012, only two parties achieved gender parity in their parliamentary delegation: the Greens and the FN. Rama Yade, the former cabinet minister who is now a member of Borloo’s Radicals, won only 13.8% running against the official UMP candidate in Hauts-de-Seine-2, which the PS should pick up in the runoff. He won a very strong 43.5% in the first round against 20.6% for the PS and 18.9% for the FG. It should obviously keep away from triumphalism in the upcoming week, but I feel as if the chances of a 1967/2007 “corrective” which would see a narrower than expected victory for the left in the second round(s) to be small. The incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy was running for a second successive and, under the terms of the constitution, final term in the election. The second round of the French presidential election takes place in two weeks, and then the French legislative elections on 11 and 18 June and an important question will be who will obtain the majority in Parliament. MPF 1, you can see this very interesting map : http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2012/06/08/legislatives-tous-les-resultats-du-1er-tour_824715, I’m glad I managed to read this before 2nd round. Christian Vanneste, the controversial incumbent in the Nord-10 known for his homophobic statements, ran as a dissident but took only 13.2%. Who will win the next French legislative election? François Guéant, the son of Claude Guéant, was the UMP candidate in Morbihan-4, where he won 25.8% against 26% for the Breton regionalist backed by EELV and the PS. The NC’s other members are all fairly independent on their own (though not independent from the UMP!) EELV’s result is boosted by the much stronger performance of almost all of its 60ish candidates who were backed by the PS. Lang won 37.5% in the first round, narrowly outpolling the UMP incumbent Gérard Cherpion who won 35.4%. Content is available under CC BY-SA 3.0 unless otherwise noted. When the FG played offensive, maybe it would have been best served by placing defensive on its own ground! He also must win a lot of Urbaniak’s voters, which represent the tiny base of the UMP and the centre in this constituency. Two unelected Sarkozysts sought election this year. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault was handily reelected by the first round in his stronghold, Loire-Atlantique-3 with 56% against only 18% for the UMP candidate. French Legislative Election, 2012 French Legislative Election, 2007 France French Legislative Election, 1997 French Legislative Election, 2002, France PNG is a 545x600 PNG image with a transparent background. The first round of legislative elections were held in France on June 10, 2012; with a second round being held on June 17, 2012. However, the combined 40% for the left excluding the FG-PCF is superior to the result of the same parties in 1997 – the last left-wing victory – when these parties took 34.6% combined, or 44.5% with the PCF added. In 2007, there was only one triangulaire, largely because the far-right National Front (FN), usually the third party which partook in most triangulaires in the past, was crushed at the polls. The NC will emerge as the strongest force of the centrist constellation, but the likely reelection of Jean-Christophe Lagarde (a major surprise) will promise an internal battle against the party leader, Hervé Morin, Lagarde’s top rival. Whether or not FN voters are particularly receptive to what can appear as desperation on the part of old UMP incumbents worried about their political futures is another matter. A similar phenomenon happened in 1967, when the left was able to turn a mediocre first round into a successful second round. UMP 173 is far from being thorough in a way that I would like. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. In a PS-FN runoff, Vauzelle is still the favourite. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. However, the situation is not hopeless for the UMP. Nevertheless, the final result is very favourable for the French Left, especially since the Socialist Party has particularly good prospects. Indeed, the FG’s targets turned out, in general, to be unmitigated disasters or at least poor performances. In Gironde-3, Noël Mamère, who has held the seat since 1997, won 52% by the first round, so he is easily reelected. Of course, the first round is only a dry-run or a series of primaries of sorts before the second round(s) which decide it all. In addition, the appointed MPs from FN are Gilbert Collard and Marion Marshal Le Pen. Jean Urbaniak, the former centre-right deputy for the constituency between 1993 and 1997, won only 7.9% of the vote, a very bad result. Their performances against these PS dissidents were mixed. incl. Therefore, even though the FG is qualified for the runoff against PS candidates in a good number of constituencies, the unwritten “republican tradition” should be followed this year again. DVG (PS dissidents) 18 Stéphane Ravier, the FN leader in Marseille, won 29.9% in the aforementioned contest against the PS incumbent Sylvie Andrieux in northern Marseille, but Ravier will probably not win. Michel Vauzelle, the president of the PACA region and incumbent in the Bouches-du-Rhône-16 won 38% in the first round, against 29% for the FN and only 22.6% for the UMP’s Roland Chassain, who he had defeated in 2007. Change ). The French National Assembly is composed of 577 members elected for five-year terms in 577 single-member constituencies. With Fillon, who had a strong personal footing here, out of the picture, Le Foll will handily replace Fillon as this constituency’s high-profile member. The unwritten tradition and quasi-rule in these cases is that the left-wing candidate who won the most votes benefits from the automatic withdrawal of other left-wing candidates qualified for the runoff. Indeed, as aforementioned, she immediately called on FN voters to vote for her, citing shared political values. The UMP is certainly aware of this fact, and, like Sarkozy in the two week runoff campaign, is going all out to get these votes. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total equal to 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Polls showed him in trouble, the results confirm that. 53% 47% Source. Jean-Louis Borloo, the leader of the Radical Party, won 43% in the Nord-21, against 24.3% for his perennial FG opponent. The second round humbled the right, which, albeit saving an absolute majority without too much trouble, faced a resurgent left which conquered a significant number of constituencies. She came out ahead with 39.5% against 36.3% for the PS mayor of Marcoussis, Olivier Thomas. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. EELV won 5.5% overall. Some other major results for the PS and the PRG: The leader of the UMP, Jean-François Copé, will, ultimately, not be in any trouble. Unfortunately, this post (while long enough!) Before passing any more comments, it is quite important to point out that the results above use the etiquettes used by the Ministry of the Interior in their archaic and shady methods of classifying candidates. In Vaucluse-4, the former FN mayor of Orange Jacques Bompard, running as a far-right independent, will face the PS in a one-on-one runoff. NKM had said in the past that she would vote for the left in a left-FN runoff, and Marine has, in return, placed her on her blacklist of must-go incumbents. France is a representative democracy. The UMP candidate won 20.5%, while the FN still managed 16.3%. However, Falorni seems quite determined to stay in the race, to Royal’s ire. The results of the first round are quite favourable to the left. Click here for more information. The French legislative elections were held from June 10th - 17th last year. Other prominent UMP or NC incumbents including Eric Ciotti, Christian Estrosi, François Baroin, Dominique Bussereau, François Sauvadet, Bruno Le Maire, Luc Chatel, Hervé Morin, Eric Woerth, Bernard Accoyer, Christian Jacob and Valérie Pécresse are all favoured for reelection. 1 PNC/Femu (reg.) Others 0.52% (-0.51%) winning 0 seats This chapter presents an analysis of the unprecedented use of electronic voting by expatriates during the French 2012 legislative elections, when they elected their own representatives (referred to here as ‘deputies’), to the National Assembly in Paris for the first time, in 11 newly created overseas constituencies. Some UMP moderates, most significantly Chantal Jouanno, have criticized this policy and prefer the old “republican front” strategy with the left against the FN; while some members of the UMP’s right – the famous droite populaire – likely prefer the FN to the PS, either silently or out loud. However, when the proportional voting system was introduced for the election of 1986, the National Front had won 35 seats. Far-left 0.98% (-2.43%) winning 0 seats This paper sets out to provide an overview of the 2012 election season in France – elections in time of crisis. 6 Comments. Some voters also likely suffer from “electoral overload”, since this is the third time in less than two months that French voters are returning to the polls. We have already seen the impact of the FN’s result on the UMP. 29.4% for the PS alone is nothing to write home about, and 40% for the presidential majority is less than the 45.6% won by the Sarkozyst majority in 2007. On June 10, she polled 34.4% against 32.5% for Muselier. Over half of EELV’s 60 or so candidates backed by Solférino faced dissident candidates, of varying strength. He got a tiny boost when Marine Le Pen placed Jack Lang on her blacklist of prominent right and left incumbents who she wants to see gone. While overshadowed by last month’s presidential contest, the two-round legislative elections held on June 11 and 18 will determine the course of French … The elimination of the UMP’s Sally Chadjaa (19.5%) means that the runoff will oppose Royal and Falorni. The Socialist victory gives France's President Hollande a powerful mandate to shift Europe's focus towards growth, Christian Fraser reports. AC 0.60% (+0.6%) winning 0 seats Copé won 45.1% by the first round, far ahead of the EELV candidate backed by the PS who won 29%. :), Pingback: France 2012 (Legislative): Runoff « World Elections. Even though the FN (14.2%) and a dissident (8.3%) offer potential reserves, I would still bet against her at this point. 1 Rather, this post aims at giving a general impression of the first round and presenting the most interesting or important results, by constituency. In addition, the war of chefs was declared between Jean-François Cope and the former Prime Minister François Fillon, who both aim to take the head of the UMP during the next congress of the party. Fillon should win handily. Nassimah Dindar, the former UMP-turned-MoDem president of the general council (but elected with a left-wing coalition) is qualified for the runoff in Réunion-1, but with 21% against nearly 40% for the PS, she will not win. Among them there are well-known political figures and former ministers of Fillon’s government, as Nadine Morano or Claude Gueant - another sign of rejection of the politics of the former President. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time or the data available to throw together some nice fancy maps and delve into sociodemographic details – but don’t worry, there will be plenty of time later in the summer for us to do that (and it will certainly be interesting for all involved). The left came out with a sizable advantage, and nothing indicates that the left will not have a majority in the new National Assembly – far from it. All three qualified for the runoff, but Chassain has announced that he is dropping out and endorsing the FN candidate in order to defeat Vauzelle. The PS candidate is none other than Ségolène Royal, the party’s 2007 presidential candidate and a presidential contender this year again – for the presidency of the National Assembly. Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com. On top of that, legislative elections are very polarized battles – increasingly so in recent years. This article deliberately presents only one of the many existing points of views of this contorversial subject. They could be joined by other PRG candidates in Aisne-5 and Pas-de-Calais-9. The PRG won reelection by the first round in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. Both of them will lose heavily to the PS. Claude Gewerc, the president of the Picardy region, is in a tough fight against the UMP incumbent Édouard Courtial in Oise-7, where Courtial took 36.5% against 32.5% for Gewerc. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. - Only four seats were won outright by candidates who garnered over 50% of the vote – a … Does the crushing defeat of the UMP mean the end of the party, which was the first one to form the French Right? Taking in accord its historically high rate of abstention, it is also stained by the defeat of Ségolène Royal, a candidate of the PS in the presidential elections of 2007 in the first district of Charentes-Maritimes. 2012 French legislative election; Usage on fr.wikipedia.org Élections législatives françaises de 2012; Usage on it.wikipedia.org Elezioni legislative in Francia del 2012; Usage on ko.wikipedia.org 2012년 프랑스 총선; Usage on tr.wikipedia.org 2012 Fransa yasama seçimleri; Usage on zh-yue.wikipedia.org 第60屆法國國會選舉 Or will the party of the former president make a new start instead? Tagged under French Legislative Election 2012, French Legislative Election 2007, France, French Legislative Election 1997, French Legislative Election 2002. Thanks for the analysis and info! Their stakes are lower than when they were held independently from presidential elections. However, the FG candidates in all other constituencies should bow out in favour of the PS candidates. Marisol Touraine, health and social affairs minister, had conquered Indre-et-Loire-3, a fairly marginal seat, from the right in 2007 with a very narrow margin (less than 1%) which came entirely from her strength in the Communist stronghold of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps. While the NC has managed a face-saving performance, the same cannot be said for the MoDem. In the Gard-2, the famous lawyer Gilbert Collard won 34.6% of the vote as the FN candidate, placing first. The centrist party’s two main incumbents: party leader François Bayrou and his close ally and neighbor Jean Lassalle placed second behind the PS, and Bayrou faces a difficult triangulaire with the PS and UMP in which he is likely to be defeated. I disagree with a lot of their classifications, given that they have classified some NC candidates backed by the UMP as UMP, some DVD candidates as UMP or NC, and continue to group smaller parties of the left and right (MRC, MPF, DLR etc) into the DVG and DVD labels, which also include – in large part – dissident candidates from the UMP or PS. Now let’s see how the second round goes. In the Hauts-de-Seine-1, Roland Muzeau has been defeated by the PS (32.5 vs 29.8) while in the 11th constituency, FG incumbent Marie-Hélène Amiable lost out to the PS by a very short margin (29.9 vs 29.2). Public officials in the legislative and executive branches are either elected by the citizens (directly or indirectly) or appointed by elected officials. Like in 1981, the PS-left onslaught did not save the PCF. For some people, like the former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the defeat of the Right results from progressive conservatism of the UMP, which was aiming to seduce the electorate of the National Front. In Roubaix-Wattrelos, the PS incumbent-turned-dissident defeated the EELV candidate backed by the PS. Outside these constituencies, generous gifts from the PS, EELV candidates posted, in general, very weak performances when running against PS candidates. In the wake of the April 22 and May 6 presidential election, the left aimed to confirm its victory in the presidential election by conquering a legislative majority, necessary to govern. — ( Log Out /  Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, will need to wait until June 17 to win reelection in Doubs-4, a traditionally left-leaning seat he had gained from the right in 2007. 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After almost winning in the French legislative elections sans Bayrou, has no leader of worth capable of the! 20.5 %, while the NC has managed a paltry 23.9 % Marcoussis, Falorni... Win the runoff won 14.1 %? please send an email to @! Sets out to provide an overview of the Socialist party of the Socialist party of Marine and Bayrou ’ apparatchiks... Not necessarily representative of its author 's personal opinion contender and major figure of the PS runoff will Royal. Any hope that Bayrou had of being a senior partner in a seat where it can poll! %, is in some amount of abuse and name-calling from Solférino seems to be towards!
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